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一 |

Container ships, gantry cranes and container yards are seen at the HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai and the EUROGATE Container Terminal in Hamburg, Germany, on August 5, 2026. Photo: VCG
German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides.
Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12 percent year-on-year to just under 37 billion euros ($43 billion), while imports from China rose 8.9 percent to 91.8 billion euros, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) cited by Reuters on Sunday. Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros from 40 billion euros a year earlier, the report said.
Reuters cited Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia expert, as pointing to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically, according to Reuters.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing," Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
In a position paper released on July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that the rapid growth of China's modern industries is driven by innovation, with nationwide research and development (R&D) spending growing by an average of 10 percent annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period.
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation.
At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader US and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said.
"Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries."
However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded 128 billion euros in the first half, about 3 billion euros more than Germany's trade with the US, according to Reuters.
China overtook the US as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the US.
Falling German exports should not be seen as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, especially as bilateral ties are increasingly expanding beyond trade into investment, local production and R&D, analysts said.
German companies invested more than 7 billion euros in China in the first 11 months of 2025, up 55.5 percent from 4.5 billion euros in 2024 and 2023 and hitting a four-year high. German companies are bulking up their China business and adopting "China for China" production strategies partly to reduce exposure to possible tariffs and export restrictions, according to Reuters.
Major German companies are also deepening their presence in China. BASF's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province went fully operational in March with an investment of 8.7 billion euros, the largest single investment project wholly owned by a German enterprise in China, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"China and Germany have developed deeply intertwined economic interests over many years," Zhao said. Rather than treating stronger Chinese industries as a reason to reduce cooperation, Germany should adapt to a relationship in which competition increasingly coexists with investment, innovation and industrial collaboration, he noted.
Recent high-level exchanges have also underscored the importance both sides attach to economic ties. During a meeting with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche in May, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that China and Germany are important economic and trade partners with a solid foundation, enormous potential and strong complementarity, calling on both sides to consolidate cooperation in traditional sectors and tap opportunities in emerging fields, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Reiche said that the German business community remained confident about China's economic prospects and innovation capabilities and would continue to deepen cooperation, Xinhua reported.
The two sides have also moved to strengthen institutional mechanisms. China and Germany agreed to restart the China-Germany Joint Economic Committee and establish two new working groups on trade and investment and industrial cooperation, according to the MOFCOM.
。月24日8时26分，四川宜宾市长宁县发生4.7级地震。中国地震预警网震后6秒通过微信小程序、华为手机、小米手机和地震预警专用终端等渠道，向震中周边区域1000余万用户推送了官方地震预警信息。

二 | 此事引发公众广泛关注。今天，中国地震局针对三方面问题进行回应：中国地震局表示，震后，成都高新减灾研究所擅自利用其自建系统生成“四川长宁7.7级”地震预警信息，以“中国地震预警网”的名义，通过荣耀、vivo、魅族品牌手机及小天才手表等终端违规向全国用户推送。第三方机构是否可以播发地震预警信息？地震预警信息属于震情信息，根据《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》第五十二条规定，震情信息应当由地震部门统一发布。地震部门持续扩大地震预警信息服务覆盖面，积极引导社会力量有序参与地震预警信息服务。第三方机构在技术评估和试运行合格后，经与地震部门签订协议，可向公众播发中国地震预警网统一产出的地震预警信息。目前已与华为、小米、腾讯以及部分广电企业等30家市场主体签订合作协议，向公众用户提供地震预警信息服务。通过签订合作协议的方式，成都高新减灾研究所自2023年、2025年起，在四川、新疆地区开展地震预警信息播发服务，合作协议明确信息来源仅限中国地震预警网。在其他省份，地震部门未与其签订地震预警信息播发合作协议。近年来，成都高新减灾研究所多次向社会违规播发地震预警信息。2026年以来，先后在浙江、陕西、宁夏、山西、河南等地多次违规播发自建系统产出的地震预警信息。地震部门多次约谈成都高新减灾研究所，并要求严肃整改。由于其未整改到位，7月22日四川省地震局终止了与成都高新减灾研究所的播发地震预警信息协议。

三 | 如何规范地震预警信息第三方播发行为？截至目前，四川、重庆、广东、陕西等27个省份出台了地震预警地方性法规和政府规章，明确规定地震预警信息由省级地震主管部门统一发布，任何单位和个人不得擅自向社会发布预警信息。

四 | 为规范地震预警信息第三方播发行为，地震部门采取了以下措施：一是完善制度建设。推动防震减灾法修订，增加地震预警管理和服务的相关条款；起草第三方服务规范性文件，出台地震预警服务相关技术标准和业务制度，逐步构建地震预警规制体系。二是加强服务监管。公开地震预警信息接入技术测试评估体系，规范第三方接入流程。建立统一技术监管平台，确保服务全程可溯、安全可控。