一 | LONDON -- LONDON (AP) — Greta Thunberg was detained by British police on Tuesday alongside other climate activists who gathered outside a central London hotel to disrupt a major oil and gas industry conference.Thunberg was among dozens of protesters who chanted “oily money out” and sought to block access to the luxury InterContinental Hotel on Park Lane, which is hosting the Energy Intelligence Forum. The conference features speakers including the chief executives of Shell, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and Norway’s Equinor, as well as the U.K.’s energy security minister. An Associated Press photographer saw officers speaking with Thunberg before leading her away and taking her into a police vehicle.Protesters attempted to block access to the conference venue by sitting on the sidewalk by the entrance. They held aloft banners and chanted “oily money out” and “cancel the conference,” while some lit yellow and pink smoke flares.Two Greenpeace activists abseiled down from the roof of the hotel to unfurl a giant banner reading “Make Big Oil Pay.” London's Metropolitan Police said that six people were initially arrested on suspicion of obstructing a highway during the protest. The force said a further 14 were detained on suspicion of disrupting public order, and one other person was detained for criminal damage.Police said they engaged in conversations with the protesters on allowing people to access the venue safely and prevent serious disruption to the hotel and guests, but some of the activists refused to move from the road.No charges have been issued yet.’We were linking arms when the police forced their way in and singled out Greta. She was dragged down the street at speed to a police van where they refused to say where she was being taken," said Joanna Warrington, an organizer with Fossil Free London who was at the demonstration.The protesters accuse fossil fuel companies of deliberately slowing the global energy transition to renewables in order to make more profit.“The world is drowning in fossil fuels. Our hopes and dreams and lives are being washed away by a flood of greenwashing and lies,” Thunberg told reporters before she was detained. “It has been clear for decades that the fossil fuel industries were well aware of the consequences of their business models, and yet they have done nothing.”“We cannot let this continue. The elite of the oil and money conference, they have no intention of transition,” she added. “We have no other option but to put our bodies outside this conference and to physically disrupt. And we have to do that every time, we have to continue showing them that they are not going to get away with this.”Police said those detained were taken into custody and that officers remained on site. Environmental groups say they will continue to protest throughout the planned forum, which is expected to last three days. Thunberg inspired a global youth movement demanding stronger efforts to fight climate change after staging weekly protests outside the Swedish Parliament starting in 2018. She was recently fined by a Swedish court for disobeying police during an environmental protest in Sweden.。 美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）正在推动央行进入一个全新的时代，高盛首席经济学家表示，投资者可能会发现，围绕该行未来利率决策的市场波动将变得更加剧烈。 高盛首席经济学家兼全球投资研究主管Jan Hatzius表示，他认为美联储新的沟通方式将带来一些后果。
二 | 这种沟通方式的特点是对货币政策采取更加模糊的立场。 在近期的政策会议上，美联储已经开始减少对未来政策路径的指引。沃什给出的理由是，市场过去往往会根据自己对美联储利率政策的判断做出反应，这实际上会掩盖市场对通胀的真实看法。 对此，Hatzius在高盛本周发布的一份报告中表示，沃什的这一逻辑存在缺陷。 “市场定价反映的是他们认为美联储会怎么做，而不是他们认为美联储应该怎么做。即便美联储刻意模糊其政策反应函数，这一点也不会改变。” 他所指的是，交易员往往更加关注美联储是否会加息——这通常会对风险资产价格构成利空——而不是通胀对美国经济构成的威胁究竟有多大。
三 | Hatzius表示：“市场对美联储下一步行动的猜测只会变得更加糟糕，从而导致市场和金融状况出现更大的波动。更重要的是，这种波动并不会对经济产生任何建设性作用。” 他补充称，由美联储政策不确定性引发的波动可能会“更加随机”，这一变化很可能对金融市场构成“负面影响”，尤其是在美联储官员继续通过公开采访等方式释放货币政策信号的情况下。 Hatzius表示，美联储官员通过非正式渠道发表利率政策观点，一直是一个“长期存在的问题”。 Hatzius特别提到了艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan），这位以讲话晦涩著称的前美联储主席据称一直对美联储同僚频繁向媒体发表言论感到不满。 “即使是全盛时期的格林斯潘，也没能做到这一点。如果地区联储主席继续频繁发表讲话，而美联储的集中式沟通却不断减少，那么这种‘噪音大合唱’实际上可能会变得更加严重。” 投资者在参加上一次美联储会议前，对央行将如何调整利率的预期不确定性已达到数年来最高水平，美国银行分析师也称这种情况“极不寻常”。 当下，市场普遍预计，美联储将在今年年底前进一步加息，但对于加息的速度和幅度，投资者仍存在分歧。 根据芝商所的“美联储观察”工具，市场目前认为该行年底前加息一次的概率为45%，加息两次以上的概率为25%。
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（文章来源：财联社）。
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